Seen It All Before

This pandemic was precedented. We just forgot. One hundred and one years ago, the spanish flu infected 500 million people and killed 50 million. The brutal rise of covid-19 was also predictable. We were distracted. We didn't listen.

"If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes," said Bill Gates in his now infamous 2015 TED talk.  "We're not ready for the next epidemic." The following year, the Obama administration published a 'Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents' listing 'novel coronaviruses' as a potential pathogen of heightened concern. 

Two million friends, colleagues, parents, siblings and children have died so far. Economies are recoiling from the shock of bankruptcies, debt and uncertainty. The entirety of Europe is considered in recession, while the only major economy to see growth in 2020 was China at 2.3%.  

But this too should be familiar territory. Modern economies have swung from boom to bust since records began. In the last 50 years, we've ridden stagflation and double-dip recessions in 1969-70, 1973-75 and 1980-82. We've endured recessions in 1990, the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, and subprime mortgage crisis in 2009.  

The dramatic destruction and resetting of our world happens time and time again.  

Yet amidst ruin, creativity has blossomed, creating efficiency and progress. More businesses have been formed in lockdown compared to the previous year - Williams Nicolson is a proud example. Our shared expectations, perceptions and location of work have changed dramatically.    

World markets seemed to be going from strength-to-strength. If we consider the returns on the stock market for 2020, the S&P 500 finished the year up over 16%, the MSCI World Index was also up almost 16%. However, delving deeper, the S&P consists of 27.6% tech companies and 13.4% healthcare, meaning 40% of the index is weighted to two sectors that were arguably beneficiaries of the pandemic and lockdowns.     

Consider vaccines. The world has united to create five vaccines - with more on the way - in under 12 months. Before, the fastest vaccine for mumps took four years to develop. Others take 10 to 15 years to develop due to their complexity. The Covid-19 vaccine race was won through worldwide collaboration. Scientists pooled data and cooperated toward a common goal. Red tape dissolved. It is the closest our generation has been to wartime efficiency in the face of a common enemy.   

The battle is not just in healthcare. These efficiencies have been felt across industries. A trade organisation chief close to our firm said heightened collaboration between members in crisis, with clearer shared purpose, meant they achieved and delivered more in twelve troubled months than the previous four years. 

The environment has benefited, emissions have reduced. Carbon Emissions were down 7% in 2020. Fish returned to Venetian waters. There were blue skies over Delhi.  

So, what shall we keep?  

The First World War sparked the Roaring Twenties. The Second World War - while devastating - laid the foundations for more equitable gender roles. The Cold War fuelled the political ambition and technological brilliance of the Space Race. 

Now is the time to sift through the changes and pick through the precedented. We have decisions to make.