Offsetting Science

In just five years time, around 200 billion tonnes more carbon dioxide will be in the atmosphere.  The world will be hotter.   

Record-breaking incidences of wildfires, heatwaves, drought and flooding will make headlines, disrupt communities and push species toward extinction.   

Your customers and shareholders will rightly demand your plan in the light of this science: what have you done and what will you do next?  

The conversation may have moved on significantly by then.  It is already harder to set a net-zero target, then forget it, kicking meaningful detail into the long grass.  You will need scientific credibility to withstand the scrutiny of public sentiment. 

And this science demands attention because we are not on track.  Climate change impacts are appearing ahead of schedule.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest assessment of where things stand – due out in August – will paint an incredibly stark picture of the state of the world.  Their 2018 report on limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels outlined the herculean effort we need to get there.   

There are tools and checklists to help.  Do you have short-term and interim emissions-reduction targets?  Is there substance behind your numbers?  Is your end goal before 2050?   

Before you consider carbon offsets, review well-documented problems with poor-quality schemes, adverse impacts and additionality.  Plus, the simple green fact is there is not enough land available to deliver the promised deal.  According to Greenpeace, the offset plans of just two organisations – an oil multinational and an aviation group – represent 12% of the total land available for this practice. 

Offset impossibilities are compounded by other limiting factors such as the significant investment, required for underground CO2 storage space.  There is also a moral dimension: can a climate conscience can be bought? 

Investors have dismissed over-reliance on offsets as a viable route to net-zero, indicating their ‘last resort’ status for hard-to-abate emissions.  The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has been even firmer, stating there is no room at all for counting offsets against science-based targets. 

So, it is 1.5c or nothing. 

Last week, the SBTi updated its strategy and guidelines on setting science-based emissions reductions goals: the organisation will no-longer accept 2C or ‘well below 2C’ temperature targets.  Companies using the framework have until 2025 to update their goals to aim for 1.5C.  Emissions targets will have to be updated as the science and our understanding evolves.  

Best to seize the initiative, take responsibility and start now.